A year ago Pacifica was told that if we made painful cuts to the school budget we would be on the trajectory to a better place. Now we are at a 3.1 million shortfall and once again looking at cuts – this time the closure of the entire Ocean Shore School (OSS) campus. At some point this rush to solutions needs to stop in favor of thoughtful planning.
At the heart of the decision-making process is a report produced by the King consultancy, which was commissioned to assess enrollment trends and help guide budgetary decisions. While the report is an important tool, a closer look reveals that the case for such drastic action is far from conclusive.
The King report, which projects an average enrollment decline of 1.9% per year over the next seven years, does not provide a compelling justification for immediately closing a campus. When this modest decrease is compared to the district’s budget deficit, it is unclear why such an irreversible decision must be made immediately – less than two weeks after the proposal was made public! The report itself recommends regularly updating its analysis to monitor enrollment trends in an implicit acknowledgment that trends may shift due to factors not fully captured in the study. This cautious approach starkly contrasts with the urgency behind the proposed closures.
Further complicating matters is the lack of a clear plan to address capacity issues at other campuses. The King data shows that SSR and IBL already face capacity limitations. If OSS families cannot be accommodated at these schools, what is the district’s plan to mitigate the resulting overcrowding?
The demographic implications of closing OSS are also troubling. Supplemental data, such as that from GreatSchools, highlights that minority students are already more concentrated at OSS and SSR than at other district schools. Closing one of the more diverse schools in the district risks exacerbating inequities and creating adverse impacts for minority students. How were these consequences considered, and what steps will the district take to ensure equity for all student populations?
Additionally, the King report does not account for how its projections might be influenced by district actions—or inactions. For example, actively marketing transitional kindergarten (TK) opportunities to newly eligible families could significantly boost enrollment. If efforts were made to reduce the gap between TK and kindergarten enrollment by half, the district could more than offset next year’s projected decline. Conversely, failing to stabilize the district by closing schools may drive families out of the district altogether, compounding enrollment losses.
The numbers tell a stark story here: if just 8% of OSS families leave the district due to the closure, the projected decline for next year could double. How can we move forward with closures without fully understanding the ripple effects?
The decisions we make now will have long-lasting consequences for our students, families, and community. Before taking such drastic actions, we must ensure that all potential solutions and impacts are thoroughly analyzed and addressed. Rushing to close OSS risks doing more harm than good—not just to one school, but to the entire district.
Rather than rushing to implement potentially harmful cuts, we must slow down, gather more information, and ensure that our decisions are based on a full understanding of all the factors at play. Our children, teachers, and community deserve better than to be swept up in a decision-making process driven by incomplete data and rushed conclusions. It’s time to reconsider our approach.
Especially since we are constantly revisiting this issue with fixes that are not working long term.
David Hashemi
Workforce Analytics Leader, Pacifica Parent
A version of this post was also published in Coastside News as a letter to the editor on January 21, 2025.